The Next Wave of Terror
Why Israel’s pullout from Gaza will fuel the conflict for years to come
by Gadi Dotz, Yeshiva University
REUTERS/Mohammed Salem
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New York, Madrid, London, Iraq, Israel. Radical Islam’s war against the West seems to be gaining momentum despite President Bush’s war on terror. Yet even with the insurgency in Iraq and the terrorist attacks worldwide, democracy is hopeful.
Saddam Hussein has been ousted, Yasser Arafat has finally withered away, and the Iraqis and Palestinian Arabs have enjoyed their first free elections in decades. Israel has unilaterally withdrawn from the Jewish settlements in the Gaza district, and the Palestinian Authority’s new leader, Mahmoud Abbas, is being given a chance to actively oppose terror attacks against Israelis. So what’s the next step in the war against the global jihad? That’s right, an increase in violence.
For the past five years Israel has been the target of a low-intensity terror war inaccurately dubbed the “Second Intifada.” Suicide bombers have murdered innocent civilians in pizza shops, discotheques, and public busses in an attempt to destroy the Jewish State. And as media watchdogs Middle East Media Research Institute (www.memri.org) and Palestinian Media Watch (www.pmw.org.il) clearly demonstrate, incitement of children to hate Jews remains a staple in PA-sponsored TV under Abu Mazen (Abbas). Arab terrorist groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to gain widespread support throughout the entire Arab world.
Since September 2000, Arab terrorists have murdered over 1,000 Israelis and left over 6,000 Israelis maimed and permanently injured. Israel responded to these attacks with additional checkpoints, stricter curfews, and the construction of a security fence. These measures have been effective in thwarting many of the terrorist attacks, but, in spite of this, the one key message the Islamist terrorists are receiving loud and clear is simple: terrorism pays.
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The unilateral nature of Sharon’s plan will do nothing to foster the growth of democratic institutions and will instead create a terrorist state right on Israel’s border.
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In the absence of a partner for peace in the PA, Ariel Sharon decided to push through with his disengagement plan unilaterally. Unlike the failed Oslo Accords, in which there was a signed agreement for concessions from both sides, the Gaza withdrawal will leave Israel without so much as a piece of paper for its territorial compromise. Where over a decade of negotiations have failed, thousands of Qassam rockets and suicide bombers have succeeded.
The pullout, a prelude to the concessions that are to be made under the U.S-brokered Road Map, was allegedly a difficult choice made by the Sharon government. But as former IDF Chief of Staff Moshe Yaalon said, “The whole question is whether your withdrawal is perceived by the other side as an act of choice or an act of flight. If it is perceived as flight, they will continue to come after you.” And this is exactly how Israel’s enemies perceive it.
According to Jerusalem Post correspondent Khaled Abu Toameh, the withdrawal is being perceived by Hamas and its supporters as a “retreat” and a victory for terror. The Palestinian Journalists Syndicate in the Gaza Strip instructed its journalists, “Let’s prove to the world during the retreat that our people, who sacrificed the blood of their women, children, and elderly, are entitled to a special status.” Abu Abir, a member of the Gaza-based terrorist group known as the Popular Resistance Committees, put it quite succinctly: “The Israeli withdrawal is only a result of resistance operations, first and foremost of which are the (Qassam) rockets.” Muhammed Dahlan concurs: “The day of victory and the beginning of a new era that was achieved with the blood of our martyrs,” he proclaimed.
REUTERS/Nir Elias
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In a statement made three weeks before the scheduled withdrawal, Ahmed Qurei, prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, made his intentions quite clear: “We say to the entire world: Today Gaza, tomorrow Jerusalem. Today Gaza, and tomorrow the independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.” Mahmoud Abbas reiterated this point at a victory celebration in Gaza: “Today we are celebrating the liberation of Gaza and the northern West Bank; tomorrow we will celebrate the liberation of Jerusalem.” Already Hamas and Islamic Jihad have vowed to keep up their “struggle” to liberate “all of Palestine.” And the Arabs in Gaza are mass-producing T-shirts and backpacks with the slogan “Today Gaza, tomorrow the West Bank and Jerusalem.”
Why should the PLO or Hamas negotiate with Israel when they can achieve their goals quite effectively through persistent violence? Haaretz reporter Danny Rubinstein said it best when he wrote, “Even if these attacks were not the reason why Sharon came up with the idea of disengagement, the Palestinians are certain that that is the case, and this has reinforced their belief that Israel only understands the language of terror attacks and violence. This belief will now become an absolute certainty—if Israel withdraws unilaterally under fire.” Unfortunately, this is exactly what transpired, as Qassam rockets rained down on Jewish towns during the days leading up to the pullout, and even during the evacuation itself.
Natan Sharansky wrote in his letter of resignation, “In my view, the disengagement plan is a tragic mistake that will exacerbate the conflict with the Palestinians, increase terrorism, and dim the prospects of forging a genuine peace.” The unilateral nature of Sharon’s plan will do nothing to foster the growth of the democratic institutions vital to forging true peace and will instead create a terrorist state right on Israel’s border. It will thus be harmful to both Israelis and Palestinian Arabs alike.
Yossi Beilin, Chairman of the far-left Yachad-Meretz Party, predicted, “There is a real danger that in the aftermath of the disengagement that violence will greatly intensify in the West Bank (sic).” His words echo the dire predictions of Yuval Diskin, head of the General Security Service (Shabak) and of Moshe Yaalon, who both foretold an outburst of terror in Judea and Samaria following the withdrawal from Gaza. Avi Dichter, the Shin Bet’s intelligence director, also warned that the unilateral withdrawal would create a “terrorist haven” and is a poor strategic move.
In fact, the terrorist organizations began taking advantage of Israel’s generous concessions long before the disengagement plan was a fait accompli. Even under Israeli military control the terrorists managed to successfully smuggle tons of weapons and explosives across the Egyptian border. Underground tunnels bypassed security fences, and even the vigilance of Israel’s intelligence and military agencies was not able to completely suspend such infiltration.
In January 2002, Israel successfully intercepted the ship Karine A, which was loaded with approximately 50 tons of weapons, including rockets and anti-tank missiles. Though Israel stopped this particular shipment, weapons have been successfully smuggled across the border on other occasions. According to the Shin Bet, over the last 19 months, hundreds of RPG rockets and mortars, 5,000 rifles, 330 anti-tank rocket launchers, and millions of bullets have been smuggled across the border from Egypt. One hundred forty-two mortar shells were fired at Israel in July 2005 alone. During the first seven months of 2005, despite the illusion of a “truce” between the PA and terrorist organizations, in which the latter supposedly agreed to withhold attacks on Israeli targets, 21 Israelis were killed and 238 were injured by Palestinian Arab terror attacks.
The danger of Katyusha and Qassam rockets being fired on major Israeli cities will only grow as a result of the retreat from Gaza. Israel’s ability to curtail the smuggling of these weapons will be greatly diminished if it abandons its control over the Philadelphi Corridor and allows the Arabs to open an unmonitored seaport in Gaza.
Former head of Military Intelligence Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror warns of the profound impact even a few Qassam rockets could have on Israeli life. “The Palestinians don’t even need to fire off that many to completely change the fabric of life in the country. It will be enough for them to fire one rocket every two weeks at Ra’anana or Kfar Saba and one rocket every few weeks into Jerusalem to make life unbearable for all Israelis.”
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Bibi Netanyahu’s plea to the Knesset: “The terrorists are cheering. Don’t give them guns. Don’t give them rockets. Don’t give them a seaport. Don’t give them an airport. Don’t give them a huge base for terror.”
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In Cairo last March, the PA reportedly invited several terrorist groups to move their bases from Damascus to the Gaza Strip after Israel’s retreat. It seems likely the terrorists will take advantage of this offer to strengthen their infrastructures. Former Israeli Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in his address to the Knesset following his resignation, warned that the withdrawal will create a “huge base for terror...al-Quaeda has already announced it will open a branch in Gaza.” Thousands of PLO fighters in Lebanon are preparing to move to Gaza after the pullout.
The disengagement can only lead to a stronger global jihad because, in the words of Congressman Dan Burton (R-IN), “If you take steps to appease an enemy, you only give him a green light to put more pressure on you.” A retreat from terror will only encourage more terror. When considering this, one cannot help but think of Bibi Netanyahu’s plea to the Knesset, and lament the fact that it fell on deaf ears: “The terrorists are cheering. Don’t give them guns. Don’t give them rockets. Don’t give them a seaport. Don’t give them an airport. Don’t give them a huge base for terror.”
Editor’s note: As of the time this article went to print, numerous rocket, mortar, and bullet attacks against Israeli targets have been perpetrated by Arab terrorists using the “Gaza victory” as a paradigm for their “resistance” movement. A rocket was fired from Gaza on nearby Sderot, a suicide bomber blew up a bus in Be’er Sheva, and shots were fired at IDF soldiers near the evacuated towns of Morag and Neve Dekalim. Despite the promise of “harsh retaliation” for such attacks, Ariel Sharon has not penalized the terrorists.
Gadi Dotz is a junior at Yeshiva University and a Political Science major.
