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The Aftermath of Withdrawal: Lessons Learned
by Avi Posnick, Yeshiva University
Then Jerusalem Mayor and current Israeli Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert explains a map of Jerusalem near the Temple Mount.
REUTERS/Natalie Behring
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In the summer of 2005, Israel unilaterally withdrew from the Gaza Strip in accordance with then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s “Disengagement Plan.” Ignoring all the warnings by security officials about the strategic dangers of such a withdrawal, Prime Minister Sharon went ahead with his plan. A year after the pullout, let’s analyze the situation.
Before the expulsion of Jews from Gaza took place, Ehud Olmert, then-Vice Prime Minister and Minister for Communications, said that the withdrawal would reduce friction between Israel and the Palestinian Arabs and would also largely end terrorism from Gaza. However, Avi Dichter, the former head of the Shin Bet Security Service in Israel, testified before the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense committees that unilaterally withdrawing from Gaza and northern Samaria would only increase Arab terrorism. Dichter said that pulling out would increase the flow of weapons from Egypt into Gaza and that passage of Arab terrorists into Gaza would be unimpeded. An increase in terrorist activity in Gaza would increase Israel’s vulnerability and diminish her ability to defend herself against attacks from hostile neighbors.
So far, it seems that the warning that Dichter gave the government was right on target. Today, Gaza has become virtually a terrorist state run by Hamas. Al-Qa’ida has set up shop in Gaza, using this new terrorist haven as a training ground for its attacks.
Prime Minister Sharon was warned that pulling out of Gaza would put Hamas right on Israel’s borders and let their rockets reach more places in Israel. Lt. Col. Itamar Ya’ar, Deputy Chairman of the National Security Council, said, “It is very likely that the territory to be evacuated in the context of the withdrawal plan will be taken advantage of by terrorists.” The council estimated that the area threatened by missiles after a withdrawal would expand by 6–12 miles—and not 4–5 miles as had been previously assumed. Israeli cities such as Ashkelon, Netivot, Ofakim, and Kiryat Gat would now be within firing range.
Warnings came from all over the security and political spectrums including then-IDF Chief-of-Staff Moshe Yaalon, former Chief of Israeli Military Intelligence General Shlomo Gazit, Head of IDF Intelligence General Aharon Ze’evi-Farkash, former Defense Minister Moshe Arens, ex-Deputy Chief of IDF Intelligence Major General Yaakov Amidror, Minister Natan Sharansky, Likud Faction Head Gideon Saar, General (ret.) Ehud Yatom, and many, many others.
On February 5, 2004, a year and a half before the pullout took place, Major General Yaakov Amidror was quoted in the Israeli newspaper Maariv as saying, “We must take into account that after withdrawal, Ashkelon, a major Israeli city, will be within the effective range of Kassam rockets. In the future, when sea and airports are built in Gaza and we will have no control, they will have Katyushas with a longer range that can also reach Kiryat Gat or southern Ashdod.” In fact, the first rockets hit the city of Ashkelon less than a year after the expulsion was implemented.
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Unilateral withdrawals are viewed by Hamas as a sign that it is winning a war against Israel.
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Since they entail unnegotiated retreat from Israeli land, unilateral withdrawals are viewed by Fatah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad as a sign that terrorism works and that they are winning the war against Israel. Their strategy is to continue terrorist attacks against Israel, and Arab terrorist groups have clearly stated they will continue their attacks until Israel is eliminated. In fact, Danny Rubinstein, a veteran, prize-winning Israeli journalist for Haaretz, told a group of Jewish leaders discussing the Palestinian Authority elections held on January 25, 2006, that Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from Gaza and northern Samaria last year boosted Hamas among Palestinian Arabs and helped Hamas win this election. These groups have stated that that they will not be content with one withdrawal and that they will continue fighting until they wipe Israel off the map and eradicate the Jewish State.
Yet, remarkably, it has been reported that Prime Minister Olmert wants to unilaterally remove approximately 70,000 Jews from their homes in Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), give away 90-95% of Judea and Samaria, divide Jerusalem, and create a Palestinian Arab capital in the city.
Many are critical of Olmert’s expulsion plan, presented under the guise of “Convergence” or “Realignment,” including many who had supported Sharon’s withdrawal. Recent polls have shown that a large majority of Israelis are against additional territorial concessions.
Though American and Israeli military, strategic, and political experts have criticized the “Convergence” plan as a colossal folly, Olmert has insisted that his plan will increase Israeli security.
One would think that given the terrible results following the Gaza withdrawal and all of the warnings received about the Gaza withdrawal as well as the new withdrawal plan, Olmert would cease discussing giving away Judea and Samaria. If Olmert were to go through with his plan, Israel would be only nine miles wide at its most populated areas.This would bring Israel back to borders that the late Abba Eban, former Israeli Foreign Minister and Ambassador to the UN, described as evoking Auschwitz because they afforded as much security as a concentration camp. Places such as Tel Aviv and Ben Gurion International Airport would be within range of rocket attacks. Hamas would have the ability to shoot down airplanes taking off and landing at Israel’s airport. Through the appeasement of terror, Olmert’s plan would effectively create a terrorist state right on Israel’s border.
Appeasement does not bring peace; appeasement only brings more war. As Winston Churchill used to say, “Those who appease the crocodile will simply be eaten last.”
Israelis and Americans are not the only ones who fear the consequences of a unilateral withdrawal from Judea and Samaria. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Jordan’s Prince Hassan have also expressed great concern over any more withdrawals by Israel. Hassan warned that the plan, if implemented, could entail dire consequences for Jordan and the region. Mubarak and his Foreign Minister, Ahmed Abel Gheit, made their position against Olmert’s plan clear in a meeting with Olmert in Sharm el Sheikh, and Hassan warned in an interview that implementing Olmert’s plan could facilitate the spread of Hamas’ Islamic extremism into Jordan. It would also damage America’s efforts in the global war on terrorism in the Middle East and throughout the world.
The United States recognizes Israel and Jordan as the most stable governments in the region. The destabilization of these governments following the implementation of Olmert’s plan, as Caroline Glick, deputy managing editor of the Jerusalem Post has written, “will motivate and facilitate the operations of those fighting the US in Iraq and other places in the region.” In other words, Olmert’s plan not only has significant consequences for Israel, but would have dire global repercussions as well.
The philosopher and poet George Santayana once said, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” History and logic dictate that any unilateral withdrawal from Judea and Samaria will have catastrophic results. We should have learned by now from our ample experience that a withdrawal will only bring more terror and violence to Israel. It will only mean that more Israelis will be killed and signal to the terrorists and their supporters that they are winning. Prime Minister Olmert must realize that any plan to unilaterally withdraw from Judea and Samaria will be a disaster for Israel and for the entire Western world.
Avi Posnick, a Political Science major, is a senior at Yeshiva University. He is a president and founder of Yeshiva University Public Action Committee (YUPAC) and the Vice President of the Israel Club at Yeshiva University.
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